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What’s missing from the experts’ predictions about the news.
Living in Israel during the current war with Iran, in between running to our bomb shelter during ballistic missile attacks, I usually try to chill out by reading the news. (Yes, I know that’s crazy, but a brain that repeatedly gets interrupted by air raid sirens during sleep cycles doesn’t think clearly.)
What irritates me is that only about 20% of the news communicates what actually happened. The other 80% is experts predicting, speculating, and pontificating about what will happen, what’s likely to happen, and what’s impossible to happen. Will US allies help secure the Strait of Hormuz? Will Saudi Arabia and Oman attack Iran? Will rising oil prices trigger a recession? Will Trump stop the war with a negotiated settlement? Is there any chance left of a regime change in Iran?
The human compulsion to want to know what’s going to happen comes from our desire to control, which puts us in direct competition with God.
As Jews around the world prepare for their Passover Seder celebrating the Exodus from Egypt, a relevant question to ponder is: What was the purpose of the Exodus?
You might answer, “Freedom,” but God had a different purpose in mind. Throughout the Biblical account of the Ten Plagues that led up to the grand finale of the Israelite slaves leaving Egypt, God repeatedly declared His purpose:
And in case subsequent generations didn’t get the point, God lays it out clearly long after the Israelites are freed: “I am the Lord your God who took you out of Egypt in order to be your God” (Num. 15:41).
Knowing that God is God is the import of the first of the Ten Commandments the entire nation heard at Sinai. What sounds like merely an introductory statement —"I am the Lord your God who took you out of the land of Egypt, out of the house of bondage"—is, according to our Sages, a commandment to believe in God, a God who acts in history for our benefit.
Bottom line, God’s job description is that God is in control. Although human beings have free will in the moral sphere to choose between good and evil, right and wrong, what actually happens is determined by God, who loves us and acts in the world and in our personal lives for our ultimate spiritual benefit.
Can you imagine the media of ancient Egypt reporting the news during the period following Moses’s first encounter with Pharoah?
Government officials declare that there is no possibility that Pharoah, head of the world’s leading empire, will accede to the outrageous demand of Jewish leader Moses to free the Israelite labor force.
According to unnamed authoritative sources, Aaron turning his staff into a serpent and water into blood are merely sorcery tricks well known to Egyptian academics. Moses and Aaron pose no threat to the stability of Pharoah’s administration.
Experts predict: Despite the devastating cost of the plagues to the economy, the Egyptian regime is still intact, offering no possibility that the Israelite slaves will be freed.
All of the available metrics could never have predicted that a powerless population of slaves could challenge the mighty Egyptian regime and walk out free.
Egypt was indeed the mightiest and longest-lived empire the world has ever known. The Great Pyramid of Giza, which dominated the landscape for a thousand years before Moses, was the tallest man-made structure in the world until 1889, when the Eiffel Tower was built. Ramesses II, likely the Pharoah of the Exodus, had erected four colossal, seated statues of himself at the entrance to the temple at Abu Simbel. Each statue (they still exist) is 20 meters (66 ft.) tall, a testimony to the massive power of Pharoah’s regime.
All of the available metrics could never have predicted that a powerless population of slaves could challenge the mighty Egyptian regime and walk out free. It only could happen, and did happen, because of the God factor, the power of the all-controlling God to achieve the unlikely, the improbable, and the impossible.
While we have seen some painful losses, we here in Israel, 3338 years after the Exodus, are again witnessing open miracles. Iran has launched over 300 ballistic missiles at Israel during the current war. A ballistic missile is 40 feet long and carries about 2,000 pounds of explosives, easily enough to destroy a whole multi-story building and kill everyone in it. For example, in January 2023, a Russian missile hit a nine-story residential apartment block in Dnipro, Ukraine, and killed 46 people.
In the last four days, three ballistic missiles fired from Iran at Israel scored direct hits in crowded urban neighborhoods, in Dimona, Arad, and Tel Aviv. Our air defenses attempted to shoot them down and missed. (The companies that produce those systems claim only 90% success.) In all three direct hits, the missile landed next to an apartment complex, but not on it. The death toll was zero.
In Arad, the force of the blast propelled a three-year-old boy out of a third-story window. Rescue workers on the ground found the boy, lying on his bed, with just a few scratches.
The three-year-old boy who flew out of the window and landed on his bed
A retired U.S. F-16 fighter pilot who took part in missions over Iraq and Afghanistan said in an interview after the 12-day war with Iran last June:
“I know what it’s like to fly thousands of kilometers into enemy territory. I’ve done it. But what Israeli Air Force pilots are doing in Iran? That’s on another level entirely.
“They’re flying distances twice as far as what we flew. Refueling mid-air, entering areas with air defense systems, carrying out precise strikes — and returning home. Every night. This isn’t normal. It’s superhuman.”
”In war, you’re sure there will be. And here? Nothing. Zero.”
When asked what surprised him the most, he answered: “Zero malfunctions. In training, you expect at least some malfunctions. In war, you’re sure there will be. And here? Nothing. Zero.”
Jews are forbidden to rely on miracles. We are required to engage in “reasonable effort” to accomplish our goals. During this war, for civilians that entails following the directives of the Home Front Command and going to a protected space when the air raid siren sounds. For the IDF, it entails the courageous, non-stop fighting of an existential war to eliminate the threat of Iran.
But what actually happens in this war is ultimately determined by God, because the same God who took us out of Egypt 3338 years ago is still bucking the odds and is still in control.
I am really glad to read this article from the author , I have the privilege to be in the front ( Not Exactly Israeli- Arab War) from 2020 to 2023. It was my first time of been in a very dangerous location. Before I left , the author shared some Tefillah's with me and by G-d's help I survived. ( We lost some officers and Soldiers to the Islamic Terrorist) . Islam is a spiritual force and I really appreciate Mrs Sara for her faith in Hashem and sharing all these great articles over the years.
Author responds: Good to hear from you, Tayo. Your faith inspires me.
Wonderful! And so true.
Sara, your commentary is on target. It is the hand of G-d which propels the IDF forces.
Such a needed and imaginative piece. You've found a way to teach us how to focus on the central, most critical particulars--even your self reflection about the compulsion to keep checking on how things are going.
AMEN indeed!!
Thank you for your clear and focused article. It is a great read.
Sorry, but I am genuinely confused by this perspective.
Don't we believe in ONE god who created all things, including Iranians?
Don't Muslims also say that they "know God"?
Our perspective is that we are his Chosen nation. The events we go through are to bring us closer to Him and strengthen our relationship with Him.
It is true that other religions claim their founder stated prophetically that they are the newly chosen. We just aren't impressed by that. Our entire nation heard it directly from God, at Mt. Sinai. We would need another such event, I guess, to change our belief. Until then...
Once you understand that Muslims say many of the same things, the holes in this God-factor theory emerge. They live according to the words of their prophets (including Moses) to build a relationship with Allah and thus to achieve favour in the Hereafter.
Without the benefit of miracles, their religion would not have survived its formative years. A tiny cult was able to destroy its Jewish and pagan enemies in 7th Century Arabia and then spread its religion across the Middle East, North Africa and into India in a miraculously short period of time.
Let's not be so selective about which "miracles" we are impressed by.
Are you saying that destroying Jewish "enemies" was miraculous?!
People should take the time to read a biography of Muhammad. How can anyone understand the mindset of a Muslim without knowing anything about the Islam origin story? It is as important to Islam as the Moses story is to Judaism.
Without the victories of the very weak fledgling Muslim community first over the more powerful Meccans and then destroying the Jews of Medina there would be no Islam today. This is what convinced the Arabs that Muhammad was a true prophet. Without the power of Allah behind him, he could not have achieved these victories. It was as miraculous as our escape from Egypt.
Get it?
Author responds: Yes, we believe in ONE God who created all things and people, including the Iranian leaders who have chosen evil. I suggest you read, "Not in God's Name," by Rabbi Jonathan Sacks. The book will clarify your confusion.
Thank you, God of Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob,the God of Israel, the Protector of the Jewish People.God's loving kindness and mercy is beyond comprehension.
“Protector of the Jewish people”
hahaha! lol!
Hoping very much you are right
Chazak veematz
Chag Pesach kasher vesameach
Only the God of Israel will determine the outcome of this war!
As a retired U.S. Army officer who has experienced combat multiple times, I can say this does not feel like a combat zone. My husband and I made aliyah this past Tuesday, and we feel safer here as Jews than we did in the U.S. What stands out is the people—their resilience, calm, and the way life continues. There is something deeper here: emunah and bitachon, faith and trust in God, not just spoken, but lived. You can feel it. This article captures what many miss—this isn’t just strategy, it’s the God factor. And for me, this is exactly where my neshama wants to be. It’s an honor to be here, among Am Yisrael, living with purpose, faith, and trust in Hashem.
This article is fantastically written! It explains things in a way that is so true and yet we need reminders every now and then to enhance our clarity. Thank you for this!
This is why Israel must never rely on foreign troops, they all want to go home, Israelis want to stay.