Hurricane Irma and Living in the Cone of Uncertainty
Praying our hearts out in South Florida.
If you live in South Florida, when you hear the word cone this time of year, you don’t think of ice cream, but hurricane highway. When a new storm develops and begins heading towards making landfall, the experts offer their best projections of where it is going and when it will get there. The “cone of uncertainty” is formed, and with each periodic update the communities and people in its path desperately look to see if they are still projected to sustain a hit. As long as one remains in the cone of uncertainty, there is an unavoidable angst and the tortuous process of waiting and anticipating what is to come.
Just a week after Harvey devastated Houston, Irma threatens our Boca Raton and South Florida communities. Larger than the country of France, this massive and powerful storm has elicited and inspired a sense of urgency and a tremendous response. Gas lines are endless, many stores have sold out of supplies, and people are panicking and legitimately afraid. A sizeable segment of our community has left. Some flew, others took the Auto Train, and many have just gotten in the car and driven north. The Jewish community of Atlanta, led by Rabbi Adam Starr and Rabbi Ilan Feldman, has been absolutely incredible and has taken in several hundred families. They mobilized rapidly and extended themselves to us generously and we couldn’t be more grateful to them.
Shortly after creation, God told Adam to multiply and to conquer His world. Indeed, He has given us the keys to understanding His universe and with each scientific, medical or technological breakthrough, we come closer to conquering it. But there are three keys that God kept on His key ring and refused to share with us: the Key of Rain, the Key of Childbirth, and the Key of the Revival of the Dead (Talmud, Ta’anis 2a). In truth, the three exceptions are really one. God has held onto the ability to provide, sustain and resurrect life.
With all that we can master, manipulate and control, the weather remains an enigma and a mystery. We identify that a catastrophic storm has formed, but not only do we lack the capacity to dissolve, disrupt or redirect it, we cannot even predict where it will go with any true sense of accuracy or precision.
There is a whole lot we can and should do to prepare for the storm – buy batteries, water, flashlights, take in outdoor furniture, put up shutters – but we are powerless from directly influencing the storm. The key to the strength and trajectory of hurricane Irma belongs exclusively to the Almighty and nobody else.
When it comes to other crises or emergencies, there is effort and initiative we can take to solve and resolve the challenge. The effort and impact we make fool us into thinking that the doctor alone healed the patient or the shadchan deserves the full credit for making the match. With a hurricane, because the only initiative anyone can take is to protect themselves, not to direct the storm, it should be easier to recognize the importance and need to turn to the Key Master and beseech Him to send the storm elsewhere, in a way nobody is threatened or hurt.
On all the checklists and preparation charts provided by agencies and organizations, prayer never appears. Nevertheless, it should be at the top of our list, not in place of other preparations but certainly in addition to them. I urge everyone to do what should come naturally at this critical time – ask God from the bottom of our hearts to turn the storm out to the ocean and spare us, our community, and all humanity.
Psalm 27 that we recite in the morning and evening from the beginning of Elul until Simchat Torah ends with the sentence “put your hope in God, strengthen yourself and get the courage to put your hope and faith in God.” Why the redundancy? If we have placed our hope in God, why does the verse call on us to do it a second time? Our sages (Berachos 32b) explain: “If a person sees that they prayed but they were not answered, let them return and pray again.”
Rav Asher Weiss explains that we learn from this verse that when our prayer doesn’t immediately yield the results we want, it doesn’t mean we received a no; it means we need to go back and pray again, with more fervor and greater concentration. One must never give up on prayer, never concede that it wasn’t answered, or stop believing that there is someone worth praying to.
Rav Asher Weiss writes: “Prayer and faith depend on each other. Prayer is the highest expression of faith and faith obligates prayer, for if in fact a person believes that there is nothing in the world but God, and that He is all powerful and all knowing, that person will put his faith in Him and will feel compelled to pray to Him with all his heart.”
As we in South Florida prepare for Hurricane Irma, it occurs to me that in truth, we aren’t the only ones in a cone of uncertainty. True, if you don’t live on the East Coast or in the gulf area, you can be confident you won’t be hit by this hurricane. But who knows what could hit you personally or collectively with little warning or projection. We all live in a cone of uncertainty at all times and should channel our sense of vulnerability and mortality into turning towards God, the only certain in this world.
While Irma is unwanted and should go elsewhere, the renewed intensity of prayer that she is inspiring is most welcome, especially this time of year as we gear up for sitting before the Almighty in judgment.
We put our hope in God and then we check the next advisory and when we see ourselves still sitting in Irma’s path, we strengthen ourselves and find the courage to once again, put our faith and hope in God.
We pray that in the merit of our turning towards God at this urgent time, the next advisory will show Irma turning away from us.